#31.2 - Problematic Probability, with Ben Chugg

Christofer and podcaster Ben Chugg speak about probability and prediction in this episode of Do Explain. They discuss Pascal's mugging, bayesian decision theory, historicism and cliodynamics, AI-risk, immortality, moral cluelessness, and other related topics.

Ben Chugg is a research fellow at Stanford law school. He has a background in math and computer science and, along with Vaden Masrani, hosts the increments podcast. He also writes insightful philosophy articles at Medium.

Website: https://benchugg.com/
Medium: https://benchugg.medium.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BennyChugg
Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/increments/id1514221797

Vaden Masrani's article series against Longtermism:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/82awH6SZDtuHxxzoG/a-sequence-against-strong-longtermism

Timestamps:

(1:54) - Pascal’s mugging

(9:32) [TQ] - What is the proper use of probability?

(20:22) [TQ] - Would you bet that humans will land on Mars by 2030?

(25:02) - Cliodynamics

(34:06) - Chris and Ben psychoanalyse each other

(36:37) [TQ] - What are your thoughts on racism against AI?

(42:16) - Should we want to be immortal?

(49:14) - The importance of solving mental health

(52:40) - Is there meaning to be found in suffering?

(59:30) - The value of loss

(1:05:25) - Moral cluelessness and ‘longtermism’

(1:15:11) - How Effective Altruism could be improved

Support the podcast at:
https://www.patreon.com/doexplain (monthly)
https://ko-fi.com/doexplain (one-time)

Find Christofer on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/ReachChristofer